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1 October 2007
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Dit artikel is deel van de serie The coming war against Iran.
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Aanval op Iran: de vraag is alleen nog wanneer en in welke vorm
Door Daan de Wit
Op meerdere fronten wordt een militaire confrontatie met Iran voorbereid. Dit is een voortdurend en dynamisch proces waarover DeepJournal bericht sinds september 2005. Belangrijke recente ontwikkelingen in dit voornamelijk Amerikaanse proces hebben betrekking op de militaire planning, de manipulatie van informatie en het aanpassen van de strategie.

Onderzoeksjournalist Seymour Hersh schrijft over de voortgang bij deze ontwikkelingen: '[...] there has been a significant increase in the tempo of attack planning. [...] And two former senior officials of the C.I.A. told me that, by late summer, the agency had increased the size and the authority of the Iranian Operations Group. [...] “They're moving everybody to the Iran desk,” one recently retired C.I.A. official said. “They're dragging in a lot of analysts and ramping up everything. It's just like the fall of 2002”—the months before the invasion of Iraq , when the Iraqi Operations Group became the most important in the agency.'

Nieuwe strategie voor makers van propaganda en militaire planning
Nu het doel van de veldtocht op weg naar Iran steeds duidelijker in zicht komt, worden ondanks de verschillen de overeenkomsten in de aanloop naar de Irakoorlog steeds duidelijker. Dit liet ik vorig jaar mei al zien in mijn video over Iran, maar ook onderzoeksjournalist Seymour Hersh schrijft in zijn artikel dat het voornaamste verschil de retoriek is. '"They've changed their rhetoric, really. The name of the game used to be nuclear threat," Hersh said on CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer, adding a moment later, "They've come to the realization that it's not selling, it isn't working. The American people aren't worried about Iran as a nuclear threat certainly as they were about Iraq. So they've switched, really"', schrijft The Raw Story. De rol die toenmalig buitenlandminster Colin Powell had in de aanloop naar de Irakoorlog om het grote publiek te overtuigen van het gevaar van Irak, wordt nu vervuld door Freedom's Watch: 'Next month, Freedom's Watch will sponsor a private forum of 20 experts on radical Islam that is expected to make the case that Iran poses a direct threat to the security of the United States, according to several benefactors of the group', schrijft The New York Times. 'Next week, the group is moving into a 10,000-square-foot office in the Chinatown section of Washington, with plans to employ as many as 50 people by early next year. One benefactor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the group was hoping to raise as much as $200 million by November 2008. Raising big money “will be easy,” the benefactor said [...]'.

Niet-militaire deel Amerikaanse aanval op Iran is reeds begonnen
Het lijkt erop dat de campagne van Freedom's Watch erop is gericht de westerse bevolkingen te preparen om wat gaat komen: een militaire confrontatie met Iran. Hiermee is net als bij de aanloop naar de oorlog met Irak, de voorbereidende propaganda het niet-militaire begin van de oorlog. Vervolgens ontbrandt de fysieke oorlog, waarna witwasoperaties, zoals ook in het geval van Irak, de imago-schade achteraf zullen proberen te beperken. Omdat het originele plan voor een aanval op Iran niet was te 'verkopen', is volgens Hersh de strategie van het Witte Huis gewijzigd. Hij spreekt erover met Zbigniew Brzezinski, de voormalig veiligheidsadviseur van president Carter: 'The Bush Administration, by charging that Iran was interfering in Iraq, was aiming “to paint it as ‘We're responding to what is an intolerable situation,' ” Brzezinski said. “This time, unlike the attack in Iraq, we're going to play the victim. The name of our game seems to be to get the Iranians to overplay their hand.”' Hersh, in zijn eigen woorden: 'The focus of the plans had been a broad bombing attack, with targets including Iran's known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military and infrastructure sites. Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism.'
Intussen schrijft The Telegraph: 'The American air force is working with military leaders from the Gulf to train and prepare Arab air forces for a possible war with Iran, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal. [...] While it is unlikely that America's Gulf allies would join any US air strike against suspected nuclear targets in Iran, their co-operation might be required to allow passage of warplanes though their airspace. American defence officials are also keen that Iran's Arab neighbours prepare to deal with any Iranian attempt to target them in return.' 'The revised bombing plan for a possible attack, with its tightened focus on counterterrorism, is gathering support among generals and admirals in the Pentagon. The strategy calls for the use of sea-launched cruise missiles and more precisely targeted ground attacks and bombing strikes, including plans to destroy the most important Revolutionary Guard training camps, supply depots, and command and control facilities. “Cheney's option is now for a fast in and out—for surgical strikes,” the former senior American intelligence official told me. [...] A Pentagon consultant on counterterrorism told me that, if the bombing campaign took place, it would be accompanied by a series of what he called “short, sharp incursions” by American Special Forces units into suspected Iranian training sites. He said, “Cheney is devoted to this, no question”', schrijft Seymour Hersh. 'The bombing plan has had its most positive reception from the newly elected government of Britain's Prime Minister, Gordon Brown.' Het is maar helemaal de vraag of het verschil tussen beide strategieën straks in de praktijk duidelijk wordt.

Bushregering zet aanvalsplannen door ondanks tegenstand
De neoconservatieve Bushregering moet in een periode van toenemende kritiek, vooral vanwege Irak, opereren in een sfeer van spanning. Seymour Hersh schrijft dat 'The former intelligence official added, “There is a desperate effort by Cheney et al. to bring military action to Iran as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the politicians are saying, ‘You can't do it, because every Republican is going to be defeated, and we're only one fact from going over the cliff in Iraq.' But Cheney doesn't give a rat's ass about the Republican worries, and neither does the President.”' 'The US president faces strong opposition to military action, however, within his own joint chiefs of staff. “None of them think it is a good idea, but they will do it if they are told to,” said a senior defence source', schrijft The Sunday Times. Nota bene de voormalig commandant van Centcom, het Amerikaanse commandocentrum dat aanvalsstrategieën uitvoert, zei recent: 'There are ways to live with a nuclear Iran [...] Let's face it, we lived with a nuclear Soviet Union, we've lived with a nuclear China, and we're living with (other) nuclear powers as well.' Oorlog moet volgens hem worden voorkomen: 'War, in the state-to-state sense, in that part of the region would be devastating for everybody, and we should avoid it — in my mind — to every extent that we can," he said.' Daarin staat hij niet alleen.

Richard Clarke, voormalig anti-terrorismechef, zei vorig jaar: 'We've thought about military options against Iran off and on for the last 20 years and they're just not good because you don't know what the end game is. You know what the first move is but not the last move'. Joseph Cirincione, de toenmalig director van het Nonproliferation Project aan de Carnegie Endowment for International Peace zei april vorig jaar: 'A military strike would be disastrous for the United States. It would rally the Iranian public around an otherwise unpopular regime, inflame anti-American anger in the Muslim world, and jeopardise the already fragile US position in Iraq. [...] It would accelerate, not delay, the Iranian nuclear programme'. Newsweek schrijft in 2004: 'the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. No one liked the outcome. As an Air Force source tells it, "The war games were unsuccessful at preventing the conflict from escalating."' 'I don't believe there is a consensus that a surgical strike could be used effectively to disable Iran's nuclear program, or that it would be wise to attempt such a strike', zegt Intelligence expert Steven Aftergood, Research Director voor het Project on Government Secrecy van de Federation of American Scientists, afgelopen maand.
Ook andere bronnen dichtbij de Bushregering zijn kritisch op een militair conflict met Iran, zo blijkt uit een recent artikel in Newsweek: 'The Pentagon worries that another war will break America's already overstretched military, while the intelligence community believes Iran is not yet on the verge of a nuclear breakthrough. The latter assessment is expected to appear in a secret National Intelligence Estimate currently nearing completion, according to three intelligence officials who asked for anonymity when discussing nonpublic material. The report is expected to say Iran will not be able to build a nuclear bomb until at least 2010 and possibly 2015. One explanation for the lag: Iran is having trouble with its centrifuge-enrichment technology, according to U.S. and European officials.' '[...] Air Chief Marshal Sir Glen Torpy, the head of the RAF, voiced the fear of many British officials that America is too devoted to military solutions. He said: "In an environment like this, we always focus on the part that the military can play in solving security and foreign policy problems, but the military will rarely, if ever, be the solution", schrijft The Telegraph. '“The Brits don't trust the Iranians,” the retired general said, “but they also don't trust Bush and Cheney.” [...] Vincent Cannistraro, a retired C.I.A. officer who has worked closely with his counterparts in Britain [...]: “The Brits told me that they were afraid at first to tell us about the incident—in fear that Cheney would use it as a reason to attack Iran.” The intelligence subsequently was forwarded, he said', schrijft Seymour Hersh.
Een kritische kijk op de kwestie Iran kan overigens de reden zijn dat Bush' topadviseur Karl Rove de Bushregering heeft verlaten, schrijft voormalig CIA-analyst Ray McGovern op basis van een deel uit de columnserie Deep Background van ex CIA-agent Phil Giraldi: 'In short, it seems possible that Rove, who is no one's dummy and would not want to be required to "spin" an unnecessary war on Iran, may have lost the battle with Cheney over the merits of a military strike on Iran, and only then decided -- or was urged -- to spend more time with his family. As for administration spokesperson Tony Snow, it seems equally possible that, before deciding he had to leave the White House to make more money, he concluded that his stomach could not withstand the challenge of conjuring up yet another Snow job to explain why Bush/Cheney needed to attack Iran.'
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