The
Dutch in the
original
article has been translated into English by Marienella
Meulensteen.
'Crash
of the dollar appears to be a question of time', headlines Dutch newspaper
NRC Handelsblad on 14 March above an article
written for Newsweek by Fareed Zakaria. He tells how
enriching countries, especially from Asia, invest their money in
American government funds: 'That way the American interest rate stays
low, and therefore, the Americans can borrow and spend money - on Asian
goods. In short: they save, we consume, their and our economy grows and
everyone is happy.' The only problem is that 'the Asian banks
cannot keep stashing dollars endlessly, and especially not when they
devalue'. What happens when the exchange rate of the dollar
collapses? Economists reckon with a world-wide recession.
Compared to the euro, the value of the dollar decreased during the past
three years with more than a third,
calculated
The Economist. 'We’re like the untrustworthy
brother-in-law who keeps borrowing money, promising to pay it back, but
can never seem to get out of debt. Eventually, people cut that guy
off',
writes
Jim Rogers in 2003, known to the
Dutch because of his
interviews for VPRO-television,
where he presented his clear economical insights. Zakaria: '[... The] world
does not revolve about rational economic dealing alone. Politics and psychology
play a big part, and in that area there is reason for concern. [...] If
everyone thinks that in a while the dollars will be disposed of, there
is a strong incentive that someone - a small country - will make the
start before the price deflates'. And then there is hell to pay.
Ever more countries consider dropping the dollar
It appears that this process has already started. Bloomberg
writes:
'[Malaysia] is seeking ways to reduce the
economy's reliance on the dollar for trade. Indonesia has mentioned it is
considering trimming its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The same goes for
Thailand, according to the Financial Times.
China also has been in the news as traders
speculate that Asia's No. 2 economy may pull the plug on dollar-denominated
debt. Such a move by the second-biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries after
Japan could send shockwaves through global markets.' 'It would be prudent
for them to diversify their reserves, but that could send the dollar tumbling',
writes The
Economist. So
the fear is that these countries will cut their losses of the
devaluating money, drop the dollar (further) and switch over
to more stable currencies, like for instance the euro.
'Once Asian central banks do, the dollar's woes will worsen. [...] If
Asians pull the plug, U.S. rates could skyrocket.' But not only Asia reconsiders, also Rusland for
example: 'Russian central bank president Sergey Ignatiev said last month
that the Bank of Russia was considering changing the composition of
its gold and foreign currency reserves to reduce its dollar holdings in
favour of the euro',
writes press
agency AFP.
Shortages US keep rising appallingly
The Financial Times
continues: 'Central banks
are shifting reserves away from the US and towards the eurozone in a move
that looks set to deepen the Bush administration's difficulties in
financing its ballooning current account deficit. [...] The consensus
among economists is that the U.S. current account deficit will increase to
$694 billion in 2005', and '$
825
billion by 2006'. Investor Warren Buffett estimates that America's debt to foreign countries 'could surge to $11 trillion by
2015', writes the Financial Times in another
article.
The central banks saw their losses increase by the weak dollar. The
European Central bank as well as the Deutsche Bundesbank were forced to
lose hundreds of millions of euros,
writes
AFP. 'Handelsblatt said the low level of interest rates alone knocked
around 700 million euros off the ECB's net interest income.'
Economical situation more grave than ever
'As
he did in a November speech, Greenspan forecast that at some point foreigners — who are currently financing U.S.
trade deficits by buying dollar-demoninated assets — will lose some
of their appetite for U.S. investments. But Greenspan said
such a scenario is likely to occur in an orderly fashion without
disrupting the U.S. economy', the Associated Press
wrote last week. Not
everyone shares in the optimism of the director of the federal bank of
America, because in the past there have been panic stories about the
dollar that turned out fine after all. Why would it go wrong this time? 'One good reason is that the
current-account deficit, currently running at close to 6% of GDP, is
almost twice as big as at its peak in the late 1980s, and on current
policies it will keep widening. Second, in the 1980s America was still a
net foreign creditor. Today it has net foreign liabilities and these are
expected to reach $3.3 trillion, or 28% of GDP, by the end of 2004 (see
chart 2)', The Economist
writes
at the end of last year.
Jim Rogers
writes in
February 2003: 'How long does the dollar have? A year? A decade? I’m
not so sure. As long as there’s no other currency stepping up to
the plate and the EU continues to struggle with the euro, the U.S. government
will likely be able to continue to jiggle the books, essentially floating
our enormous tab on the backs of the rest of the world. No country in
history which has gotten itself into such a situation has escaped without
at least a semi-crisis eventually.'
US have to act to avert world-wide recession
The
Americans are used to the power of their currency, are used to the fact
that others value its worth very highly. The Economist writes in its
cover
article
The disappearing dollar: '[The] privilege of being able to print
the world's reserve currency, a privilege which is now at risk, allows
America to borrow cheaply, and thus to spend much more than it earns,
on far better terms than are available to others. Imagine
you could write cheques that were accepted as payment but never cashed.
That is what it amounts to. If you had been granted that ability,
you might take care to hang on to it. America is taking no such care,
and may come to regret it'. In another
article
in the same issue The
Economist describes two future scenarios, one that requires strong
action of the current American government, and one where there
will soon come a point beyond which things cannot go, a world-wide
recession: 'The best way would be for the government to
cut its budget deficit. That would reduce America's need to borrow from
abroad, and so mitigate the fall in the dollar and rise in bond yields
that will otherwise be demanded by investors. If combined with stronger
growth abroad, then the current-account deficit could slowly shrink.
America's growth would be depressed by tax increases or spending cuts,
but there would be no need for recession. If, on the other hand, the
government fails to cut its budget deficit, the dollar will fall more
sharply and bond yields will rise. America's housing bubble might then
burst and consumer spending would certainly slow sharply. That combination
would reduce the external deficit, but only at the cost of a deep
recession'.
Free fall of dollar reeks of plot
The economic policy of the US seems to describe the last flight of
a kamikaze pilot. Why this type of conduct? Is there a hidden
agenda and what might it be? Part of the policy is the much criticized tax restitution
by Bush. Friend and foe agree that the biggest advantage is had by the
more affluent Americans. While social safety nets are taken away,
especially the rich are refunded a lot of tax money. The rich are
getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. Because of this, but of
course also because of the burden on the scales through military
expenditures, the US has run up such an enormous debt that it appears
to be inevitable that they will succumb under it. That could not be the
intention?
But maybe it is the intention, because
in
the meantime, Bush and his rich friends have already feathered their
nests. In the meantime, they don't care any more about a social safety
net and a collapsed economy. What is more, a collapsed economy provides
low prices on the Stock Exchange. In this economic situation,
nobody has any money left to buy stock except Bush and his consorts.
Then at one point the rebuilding of the economical curve will start and the
rich will possess even more than before. It already may look like they
make the decisions despite a semblance of democratic 'checks and
balances', but then they will be supremely powerful.
Over-consumption US is
biggest cause of present economic misery
At the World Economic Forum in Davos end of January, the steady
fall of the dollar was the main topic of discussion, The New York
Times
writes.
The NRC heading of afore-mentioned Newsweek
article by
Fareed Zakaria is echoed by critics at the forum: '"There's nobody
home on economic policy in America right now," said Stephen S. Roach, the
chief economist at Morgan Stanley. The twin burdens of household and
public debt in the United States, he said, are unsustainable. Describing
American consumers as "an accident waiting to happen," he asked, "When
does the music stop?"'. The American way of
life is frantic, a luxury that cannot be sustained. The Economist
writes:
'America has habits that are inappropriate, to say the least,
for the guardian of the world's main reserve currency: rampant government
borrowing, furious consumer spending and a current-account deficit
big enough to have bankrupted any other country some time ago.'